Causal or circumstantial.

Dr. Weeks’ Comment:   A fun tale about how false conclusions derive from associations which are not always causal.

 

Cold Winter Ahead

Its late fall and the Indians on a remote reservation in Mattawa asked their new chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild.

Since he was a chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky, he couldn’t tell what the winter was going be  like.

Nevertheless,  to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the  winter was indeed going to be cold and that the  members of the village should collect firewood to be  prepared.

But, being a  practical leader, after several days, he got an idea.  He went to the phone booth, called the   Weather Network and asked, ‘Is the coming winter going  to be cold?’

‘It looks like  this winter is going to be quite cold,’ the  meteorologist at the weather service  responded.


So the chief  went back to his people and told them to collect even  more firewood in order to be  prepared.

A week later,  he called the  Weather Network again. ‘Does it  still look like it is going to be a very cold  winter?’  
’Yes,’ the man  at  Weather Service again replied, ‘it’s going  to be a very cold winter.’

The chief  again went back to his people and ordered them to  collect every scrap of firewood they could  find.

 
Two weeks  later, the chief called the  Weather Network  again. ‘Are you absolutely sure that the winter is  going to be very cold?’

‘Absolutely,’  the man replied.  ‘It’s looking more and more  like it is going to be one of the coldest winters  we’ve ever seen.’

‘How can you  be so sure?’ the chief asked.

The weatherman  replied, ‘Because the Indians are collecting a s–tload of  firewood’

 

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